Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLAY) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$453m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.84 some 114% larger than what the analysts had predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Dave & Buster’s Entertainment
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Dave & Buster’s Entertainment’s ten analysts is for revenues of US$2.25b in 2026. This would reflect a modest 2.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 38% to US$3.06. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.31b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.47 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target fell 18% to US$39.71, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Dave & Buster’s Entertainment at US$48.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$33.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock’s future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Dave & Buster’s Entertainment’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Dave & Buster’s Entertainment is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
